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What Do You Really Know?

2/5/2024

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​This topic fascinates me: “What do you really know?” What, for example, do you have the knowledge and expertise on to venture an informed opinion?
 
In today’s society, given the willingness of many to pontificate and presume deep understanding of an issue by yacking away on social (or other) media, it comes across as though a large portion of people know the internal workings of a tremendous number of complex subjects. For any true expert on a specific issue (let’s take a scholar in history), that individual quickly recognizes the inexpertness of individuals who enjoy spouting their views with vehemence as if they know it all.
 
This topic jumped out at me in (of all the weird places) a hot tub. As I relaxed my sore muscles and jets shot bubbles into my back, my mind faded, but stayed focus on two men talking adjacently. They went back and forth on multiple topics about investing.
 
As they spoke with authority about markets, CDs, annuities, small cap funds, large cap funds, stocks, bonds and various other financially oriented jargon, I let the banter sink into my softening brain. One spoke, the other nodded, then piped up, speaking with a sense of knowing exactly what is going to happen in the near future regarding their retirement fund.
 
I thought to myself, “I wonder if this guy is a financial analyst?” He sounded smart. He sounded like he knew what he was talking about. Maybe he was an expert.

Then, the other guy posed a question. And I heard about investing $825,000 in real estate to “see what would happen” with a certain parcel of local land. Seemed like speculation to me. Placing a bet that a certain corner will become popular and increase in value reasonably quickly.
 
As they talked about where to best place their money to grow it exponentially, I was struck how often people engage in these types of discussion with friends, neighbors, work colleagues, relatives. In the absence of (or just the recognition of) our lack of understanding on a topic, we seek information/opinion from others. We hope to receive good advice in return.
 
But, shouldn’t we go to the real experts for that? Ask your professional investment person what their view is on how the Russian war against Ukraine will affect the grain markets. Query your financial guru who guards your money about how the current conflict in the Middle East is affecting the shipment globally of high technology components.
 
Don’t ask the guy in the hot tub. I don’t know. Maybe the guy in the hot tub was an expert. He sounded like he knew what he was talking about. Many times, that wins the battle – sounding good.
 
It seems to me though that far too often we solicit and trust others in our personal sphere to know what they are talking about rather than trusting experts who are educated in a specific, and spent years honing that skill set so their knowledge base gives them a trusted soap box.
 
Ask your friend. Ask your neighbor. Ask the guy in the hot tub. Have fun with the conversation, certainly. But, if you value high quality expertise, you’re going to have to dig deeper and go to the people who make it their career to discourse expertly on an issue, and in turn earn your trust. And, finally, just a tidbit – they ain’t gonna be right every time. No one is.

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